Highest temperature in Wellington on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest temperature on 17 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either insufficient liquidity or trader consensus that no single range commands meaningful backing at present prices.

August represents Wellington's winter month, when mean daily highs typically range between 12–14 °C. Historical records show that mid-August temperatures in Wellington rarely exceed 16 °C, with extremes above 18 °C occurring only in atypical years. The 0% crowd probability reflects this seasonal baseline; traders are effectively pricing the event as unlikely to fall into any specific high-temperature bracket rather than signalling disbelief in the market's existence. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse given the market's specificity and distant settlement date, though comparable weather prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show similar low-probability clustering for winter temperature extremes in Southern Hemisphere locations.

Traders should monitor New Zealand's meteorological forecasts from mid-August 2026 onwards, particularly any unusual anticyclonic systems that could drive warm northerly flows into the Wellington region. The National Institute of Water and Atmospheric Research (NIWA) publishes seasonal outlooks and weekly forecasts that typically become actionable five to ten days before settlement. Resolution hinges entirely on Weather Underground's Daily Observations data feed from Wellington Intl Airport Station; any station maintenance or data gaps during the settlement window could affect final determination.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.