Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the Hong Kong Observatory will record the day's maximum temperature in degrees Celsius. This market resolves to whichever temperature band contains that single reading, measured to one decimal place and sourced from the Observatory's official Daily Extract records once published.

Hong Kong's August temperatures are remarkably consistent year-on-year, with historical daily maxima clustering between 31–34°C during the peak summer monsoon season. The 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 32.5°C, though the territory has recorded extremes ranging from 29.6°C to 36.3°C on this calendar date across different years. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are either awaiting range options to clarify the specific temperature bands available, or the market has not yet attracted sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Cross-platform comparison data from Kalshi and Polymarket remains sparse at present, indicating this contract may be in early discovery phase with limited analyst consensus.

Traders should monitor the Hong Kong Observatory's seasonal forecasts and any tropical cyclone activity in the Western Pacific during early August 2026, as both significantly influence daily maxima. The settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC on 17 August, but actual resolution depends on the Observatory publishing its Daily Extract data—typically released within days of the observation date. Any unusual atmospheric patterns or typhoon systems affecting the region in the week prior would serve as key catalysts for repricing, though historical volatility for this specific date remains modest.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.