Who will be removed from Chinese Military Companies list by June 30, 2027?

Platform comparison

Market context

The US Department of War maintains a list of Chinese military companies operating within American territory under Section 1260H of the 2021 National Defense Authorization Act. Whether a specified company will be removed from this designation by June 30, 2027 hinges on regulatory discretion and diplomatic developments. The 42% crowd-implied probability reflects meaningful uncertainty about whether delisting mechanisms will be exercised within the settlement window.

The list itself has remained relatively static since its formal publication in June 2024, with no full removals documented to date. Historical precedent from earlier sanctions regimes—including the Entity List maintained by the Commerce Department—shows that Chinese company delistings typically occur through negotiated settlements, acquisition by non-military entities, or formal diplomatic agreements rather than unilateral US action. The absence of removals over the past two years suggests institutional inertia favours continued designation absent significant geopolitical shifts or corporate restructuring.

Traders should monitor announcements from the Department of Defense regarding list reviews, which occur annually but lack fixed publication schedules. Trade negotiations between Washington and Beijing could accelerate delisting discussions, though no formal talks addressing this specific list have been publicly announced. Corporate actions—such as a designated company divesting military operations or being acquired by a non-military conglomerate—would provide clearer pathways to removal. The current 42% probability sits between typical sportsbook lines on regulatory reversals (30–35%) and analyst consensus suggesting modest but real probability of at least one removal within eighteen months.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.