Highest temperature in NYC on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world question is whether LaGuardia Airport’s official daily maximum for 6 August lands in the market’s bracket, and the pricing implies traders see a finish in the high 80s as most likely. On Polymarket-style pricing, the biggest cluster sits in **88-89°F** at 66%, with **90-91°F** at 26% and only a small tail above that; by contrast, Robinhood’s contract for New York City daily high shows **88** at 75¢, **>89** at 45¢ and **>90** at 23¢, which points to a similar but not identical view of the same temperature distribution.[1][9]

The current 0% YES reading looks misaligned with both those market-implied distributions and the day’s forecast context. AccuWeather’s New York forecast for 6 August shows an **88°F** high, while USA Today reported a Heat Advisory with actual temperatures expected to peak in the **upper 80s and lower 90s** and heat index values well above 100 across the metro area.[3][10] For a contract settled on the highest reading at LaGuardia rather than a citywide average, the key historical analogue is a summer day where the airport reaches the upper 80s but falls short of a 90s print, which would keep the outcome inside the dominant 88-89°F band rather than forcing a higher bracket.[4][8]

The main catalysts are the timing of the warmest afternoon period, any convective cloud cover or thunderstorms that cap the high, and whether the airport briefly touches 90°F before the evening cooldown. The National Weather Service heat advisory described a hot, humid stretch through Friday, but the market resolves on the single highest official temperature at LaGuardia as recorded by Wunderground, so even a short-lived spike matters more than the daily average or the “feels like” temperature.[10][14] That makes the last few hours before the settlement window closes the critical period for any divergence between sportsbook-style lines, prediction-market pricing and analyst forecasts.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

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How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

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