Highest temperature in Chengdu on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at Chengdu Shuangliu International Airport on 17 August 2026 will determine this market's resolution, with the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground serving as the authoritative source. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across prediction platforms, suggesting traders expect the specified temperature threshold to remain unmet on that date.

Chengdu's August climate presents a consistent pattern for comparison. Historical data from the China Meteorological Administration shows that mid-August temperatures in Chengdu typically peak between 28–35°C, with extreme highs occasionally reaching 37–39°C during particularly intense heat waves. The 2022 summer saw Chengdu experience temperatures exceeding 40°C for the first time in decades, though such extremes remain statistically uncommon. The 0% crowd probability reflects either a temperature range set substantially above typical August maxima, or trader consensus that 2026 will follow normal seasonal patterns rather than repeat anomalous heat events.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding heat waves or unusual atmospheric patterns affecting the Sichuan region. The East Asian summer monsoon's strength and timing will influence whether tropical moisture reaches Chengdu, potentially moderating temperatures through increased cloud cover and precipitation. Any significant deviation from seasonal norms—such as a persistent high-pressure system stalling over central China—would shift expectations materially. Resolution hinges entirely on the specific temperature range embedded in the market's outcome categories, which determines whether typical August conditions suffice to trigger a YES resolution.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.