World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties

Platform comparison

Market context

The 2026 FIFA World Cup has already produced its first missed penalty, with Lionel Messi failing to convert an early chance before scoring twice. This early incident sets the stage for a market betting on whether the total number of missed or saved penalties during regular, stoppage, or extra time will reach a specific threshold, with the current crowd-implied probability for the "Yes" outcome sitting at just 1%.

Historically, penalty misses in World Cups are rare but often decisive, with Roberto Baggio’s 1994 final miss remaining the tournament’s most infamous example. Since 1966, only a handful of players like Xabi Alonso and Hugo Sánchez have recorded single missed penalties in official matches, suggesting that reaching a high aggregate count is statistically improbable. The 1% price reflects this scarcity, aligning with analyst consensus that multiple missed penalties in a single tournament are outliers rather than expectations.

Traders should monitor upcoming match schedules and team news, particularly for nations with high-pressure fixtures where defensive errors or goalkeeper saves could increase missed counts. Recent reports confirm Messi’s miss occurred during regular time, validating the market’s inclusion criteria, while Germany’s three missed penalties in a single match highlight the volatility potential. As the tournament progresses, any shift in team form or tactical adjustments could act as a catalyst, though current odds suggest the market remains heavily weighted against the threshold being met.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track World Cup: Number of Missed Penalties across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.