Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
93% | 7% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | View on Polymarket → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
93% | 7% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | View on Polymarket → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | View on Polymarket → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | View on Polymarket → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | View on Polymarket → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| O/U 0.5 | 93% |
| Norway O/U 0.5 | 81% |
| 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 78% |
| O/U 1.5 | 76% |
| 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 70% |
| Côte d'Ivoire O/U 0.5 | 69% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 60% |
| Both Teams to Score | 57% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 50% |
| O/U 2.5 | 50% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 0.5 | 49% |
| Norway O/U 1.5 | 48% |
| 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 46% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 0.5 | 39% |
| Team to Advance | 35% |
| 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 33% |
| Côte d'Ivoire O/U 1.5 | 31% |
| Both Teams to Score in Second Half | 31% |
| O/U 3.5 | 28% |
| Norway (-1.5) | 24% |
| Norway 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 23% |
| Both Teams to Score in First Half | 22% |
| Norway O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| 2nd Half O/U 2.5 | 21% |
| Norway 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 16% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 2nd Half O/U 1.5 | 14% |
| O/U 4.5 | 14% |
| 1st Half O/U 2.5 | 12% |
| Côte d'Ivoire O/U 2.5 | 11% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-1.5) | 10% |
| Norway (-2.5) | 10% |
| Côte d'Ivoire 1st Half O/U 1.5 | 9% |
| O/U 5.5 | 6% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-2.5) | 3% |
| Norway (-3.5) | 3% |
| Norway (-4.5) | 2% |
| O/U 6.5 | 2% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-3.5) | 1% |
| Norway (-5.5) | 1% |
| O/U 7.5 | 1% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-4.5) | 0% |
| Côte d'Ivoire (-5.5) | 0% |
| O/U 8.5 | 0% |
Market context
The Côte d'Ivoire vs. Norway - More Markets prediction market currently prices this outcome at 93% YES. More markets for the FIFA World Cup game, scheduled for June 30 at 1:00 PM ET.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What does Polymarket cost to trade?
- Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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