Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 8 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s *Absolute Daily Min* reading, reported to one decimal place in Celsius, so the contract is effectively a single-day floor temperature rather than a broad daily average. The current crowd-implied probability of **0% YES** suggests traders see the listed outcome as either very unlikely for the specific temperature band or simply not yet priced for a hot-season overnight low; there is no sportsbook line in the materials provided to anchor a true cross-platform comparison.

Historical August climate in Hong Kong points to persistently warm nights. The Observatory’s 1991–2020 normal for 8 August gives a mean minimum of **26.9°C** and mean temperature of **29.0°C**, while broader August summaries commonly show overnight lows around **27°C** and daytime highs near **31°C**.[1][16] Comparable daily weather histories also place recent 8 August lows in the high-20s Celsius, with published examples around **27°C to 29°C** in the 2020s, which makes very cool outcomes rare outside an unusual rain, cloud, or synoptic setup.[9][14]

The main catalysts are the pre-dawn and early-morning observations, plus any late shift in rain, cloud cover, or onshore flow that could suppress the minimum before the final daily extract is published. The official source will be the Hong Kong Observatory’s Daily Extract once finalised, and the market cannot resolve until that data appears on the climate page.[19][6] At 3 a.m. local time, the Observatory reported **29°C** at the observatory and **27–30°C** across several districts, underscoring how warm the night was already before the minimum was locked in.[14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 8? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.