Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s lowest temperature on 5 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final “Absolute Daily Min (deg. C)” reading, with settlement waiting until the Daily Extract for that date is published. The contract’s current crowd price is heavily skewed towards a warm overnight low: Polymarket shows 27°C as the leading bucket at about 45%, with 26°C next at 29%, while 25°C and colder sit in the low teens or below.[1]

That positioning is consistent with Hong Kong’s August climatology, when humid monsoon conditions usually keep minimum temperatures in the mid-to-high 20s rather than anywhere near the lower bands. A useful recent comparator is August 2025, when the Observatory recorded a monthly low of 24.0°C on 5 August during persistent rain; that outcome shows the market can settle a full bucket lower when cloud, rain and onshore flow suppress the pre-dawn minimum.[16] Even so, the present crowd distribution implies traders see 27°C as the modal outcome and only a limited chance of a materially cooler reading.[1]

For traders, the key catalysts are the Observatory’s short-range forecasts, any late monsoon trough or thunderstorm updates, and the timing of the Daily Extract publication, because the market cannot resolve before the official data appears.[1][6] The current setup is broadly aligned with the regional forecast picture: the Observatory has been flagging cloudy, unsettled conditions with scattered thunderstorms and overnight lows around 26–27°C, which leaves little room for a significant negative surprise unless rain arrives earlier or becomes more persistent than expected.[1][8]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 5? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.