Lowest temperature in Hong Kong on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s overnight minimum on 10 August will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily extract, and the market only resolves once that final figure is published in Celsius to one decimal place. With the crowd at **0% YES**, the contract is trading as if an outcome in the target range is effectively off the table, but that sits uneasily against the live weather pattern: AccuWeather’s same-day forecast for Hong Kong shows an **85°F low** for 10 August, which is about **29.4°C**, a level that would land well inside many higher temperature brackets rather than the lowest ranges. [11]

For context, Hong Kong’s August climatology is already very warm, with the Observatory’s 1981–2010 normals putting the 10 August mean minimum at **26.3°C** and the overall mean at **28.7°C**. Comparable recent August data also show how far from “cold” this date usually is: the Observatory described August 2024 as exceptionally hot, with a mean daily minimum of **27.7°C**, while August 2025 saw a maximum of **34.4°C** on 10 August itself. That historical backdrop suggests the market’s pricing is consistent with an expectation of a high overnight floor, even if the exact temperature can still move with rain, cloud cover and wind. [3][8][13]

Traders should watch for the Observatory’s post-day publication rather than intraday headlines, because the contract depends on the finalized “Absolute Daily Min” rather than a preliminary reading. The main short-term catalysts are the day’s rainfall, cloud cover and any tropical or monsoonal disturbance that might suppress or trap heat overnight; the settlement source is explicit that the result is only known once the relevant daily extract is issued. Cross-platform pricing also appears highly skewed: prediction-market probability is at **0% YES**, while sportsbook-style weather lines are generally framed as a temperature band forecast rather than a binary outcome, leaving little room for direct comparison beyond the implied view that a very low minimum is unlikely.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.