Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport will determine the settlement outcome for this market. The resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces materially different readings when intraday spikes occur. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are either heavily discounting a specific temperature threshold or the market has attracted minimal liquidity at present.

Wuhan's August climate presents a consistent pattern: daily highs typically range between 32–36°C, with extreme readings occasionally exceeding 38°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past five years shows that mid-August temperatures have rarely fallen below 30°C or exceeded 40°C, establishing a narrow band for most plausible outcomes. The 0% crowd probability may reflect either a threshold set above realistic extremes or early-stage market formation before meaningful trading activity.

Traders should monitor China's meteorological forecasts released in early August 2026, particularly any alerts from the China Meteorological Administration regarding regional heat events. Tropical cyclone activity in the western Pacific during late summer can redirect moisture patterns and suppress temperatures, whilst high-pressure systems over central China typically drive sustained heat. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 17 August, creating a hard deadline that eliminates any ambiguity from afternoon temperature spikes recorded after market closure.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.