Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wuhan’s **highest temperature on 10 August** will be measured from Weather Underground’s Daily Observations at Wuhan Tianhe International Airport, so the contract is effectively a single-day, station-specific heat reading rather than a general city forecast. With the market currently pricing a **0% YES** probability, the crowd is effectively saying the observed peak will fall outside the contract’s specified range, even though the live forecast stack still points to a hot, humid summer day rather than a cool one.[1][13][19]

Historically, August is Wuhan’s hottest month, with average highs around **33–34°C** and recorded extremes up to about **41°C**, so a mid-30s Celsius print is not unusual for the city in late summer.[2][6][8][16][17] By comparison, the Polymarket board is clustered around the **29°C to 31°C** bands, with 29°C the front-runner at roughly **46%** and 30°C close behind at **38%**, which is a much more granular distribution than the market’s headline 0% YES status suggests.[9] On a sportsbook-style comparison, that implies the crowd sees a narrow peak around the high 20s or low 30s, while the broader weather history says Wuhan can still run several degrees hotter if cloud cover or rainfall underperforms the forecast.

The key catalysts are the live forecast updates, whether rainfall arrives early enough to cap daytime heating, and the station observations as they post through the afternoon. Current weather feeds show patchy rain nearby, around **27°C** in Wuhan, with high humidity and light precipitation reported, while AccuWeather and the forecast summary both flag rain and a modest daytime ceiling for 10 August.[10][12][14][19][20] Because the settlement source is the **Daily Observations** table, traders should watch that stream rather than the summary high/low; in practice, a late-afternoon spike or a rain-cooled plateau could decide whether the final reading lands in the 29°C, 30°C or 31°C bucket.[1][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wuhan on August 10? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.