Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington International Airport will record its highest daily temperature on 12 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary figures. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across tracked platforms, suggesting traders view the resolution window as either extremely unlikely to occur or the market lacks sufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds.

August is Wellington's winter month, with historical daily maxima typically ranging from 11–14°C at the airport station. The 0% probability reflects the absence of any credible meteorological forecast suggesting anomalous warmth for that specific date. Cross-platform comparison shows Kalshi and Polymarket both displaying identical zero-probability pricing, indicating consensus rather than arbitrage opportunity. No sportsbooks offer temperature derivatives for New Zealand locations, leaving prediction markets as the sole venue for this contract.

Traders should monitor the MetService extended outlook as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly any northwesterly flow patterns that could advect warmer air masses across the lower North Island. The resolution methodology's explicit reliance on the Daily Observations table—rather than the Day High & Low summary—introduces minor technical risk; historical discrepancies between these Weather Underground sections are rare but documented. Current pricing reflects rational dismissal of extreme outlier scenarios, with the market functioning primarily as a hedge against unprecedented August heat rather than a probability-weighted forecast.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Wellington on August 12? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.