Highest temperature in Wellington on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Wellington’s 11 August high is being priced like a near-certain outcome, but the live weather picture still matters because this contract settles on the **highest temperature in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table** at Wellington Intl Airport, not the broader “Day High & Low” summary. Current public forecasts are tightly clustered around a cool, cloudy day: the WMO city forecast shows **8°C to 12°C with showers**, AccuWeather has **55°F/47°F** with overcast conditions, and Weather Watch is even a touch warmer at **15°C/10°C** but still cloudy with light rain risk[1][2][4][5]. That leaves little room for a materially hot print unless the airport briefly warms above the usual model range.

Historically, August in Wellington tends to produce modest highs rather than sharp spikes: forecast and climatology sources commonly place the month around **11°C to 12°C** for daytime maxima, with wind and cloud suppressing extremes[11][13][17]. Time and Date’s hourly outlook for Tuesday also keeps readings mostly in the **single digits to low teens Celsius**, which is consistent with the market’s 0% YES crowd signal and with the broader cross-platform view that a high-temperature bucket above the expected range is unlikely[8][17]. Compared with sportsbook-style weather lines, the prediction market looks even more compressed: traders are effectively saying the settlement outcome is so far from the likely temperature bands that the contract’s YES side is negligible.

The main catalysts are the actual station observations during the New Zealand daytime session, not headline forecast pages. Wellington often sees quick changes from southerly or nor’easterly flow, so a short-lived break in cloud cover could lift the day’s maximum, but the posted forecasts currently point towards cloud, light rain, and breezy conditions rather than a warm-up[1][4][5][18]. Traders should watch the Weather Underground station feed for Wellington Intl Airport as the day progresses, because the settlement source prioritises the observation table and any midday uptick there will matter more than model averages or summary highs[16].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.