Highest temperature in Wellington on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

The contract is about the **highest recorded temperature at Wellington International Airport** on 10 August, with the current crowd leaning hard to the **15°C** band and only a smaller tail in **16°C** and below, so the market is pricing a fairly tight, near-average winter day rather than an outlier. That lines up with broader Wellington August climatology, where typical highs sit around **12–13°C**, and with the exchange’s own weather note pointing to a **13–15°C** daytime maximum under mild northerly flows[1][7][10][11].

Historically, Wellington in August most often resolves in the low-to-mid teens, with long-run averages clustered around **13°C** and only occasional spikes above that; the station-specific framing matters because airport readings can differ from city-wide summaries, especially when wind and maritime effects are in play[7][8][13]. On a cross-platform read, the key divergence is not between exchanges so much as between the market’s **0% YES** implied by the current prompt and Polymarket’s live range pricing, which is effectively saying the contract is still very much live at **15°C** rather than anything extreme[1].

For traders, the main catalysts are the morning and early afternoon observations at Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table, because the market resolves off that source rather than the headline day high/low panel, and late updates can still matter until the first datapoint for the following date is published[1][17]. In practice, that means the important dependencies are the airport’s temperature trace, any brief northerly warm-up, and whether subsequent observations revise the day’s high after the fact; there is no obvious policy or scheduled-event risk here, just the weather feed itself and the timing of its publication[1][6][17].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.