Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo’s highest temperature on 6 August is being priced against a hot but still fairly ordinary August profile for the city, with private forecasts calling for a daytime peak around 31°C to 34°C and Wunderground resolving the market off the Tokyo Haneda Airport Station reading. Polymarket is currently putting the most weight on the 33°C bucket at 24%, followed by 34°C at 18%, while the 0% crowd-implied chance for YES on the contract as framed here suggests either a stale market view or a mismatch between how traders are reading the ladder and how the event will settle.

The historical backdrop is straightforward: Tokyo’s August highs typically sit in the low 30s, and comparable weather services place the city’s average maximum near 31°C with high humidity.[1][7][8][10][16] That makes the centre of mass for outcomes look more like the 31°C-34°C band than the extremes, which is consistent with Polymarket’s current spread but not with a near-zero contract probability. Recent live Japanese data also show early-August highs already in the mid-30s at multiple Tokyo-area stations, including Haneda at 35.6°C on 1 August and 33.0°C on 2 August, so the upper buckets are not out of line with recent conditions.[2]

For traders, the main catalysts are the daytime forecast revisions, any heat advisory or typhoon-related cloud/rain signals, and the timing of the daily peak before the 12:00 UTC settlement window closes. AccuWeather’s August outlook leaves Tokyo in a 82°F-90°F range for daily highs, implying that a late-morning warm-up could still push the result into the 32°C-34°C zone if skies stay clear.[1] By contrast, a broader cloud band or passing rain would cap the max and favour the lower 30s, which is the main reason analyst-style consensus would usually sit closer to the mid-30s than to the contract’s current zero-per-cent reading.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 6? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.