Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s peak temperature for 5 August will be set by the single highest reading at the airport station, not the citywide average, so the contract is most sensitive to the daytime maximum rather than the overnight minimum. At 07:53 UTC, the crowd is pricing the market as if the result is effectively settled at the low end: Polymarket shows **0% YES** for the contract structure, while the listed outcome ladder still concentrates on the **29°C to 31°C** band, with 29°C at 33%, 30°C at 31%, and 31°C at 19%.[5]

That distribution sits in line with Tokyo’s typical August heat profile. Long-run guides put daytime highs around **31°C** and describe August as the city’s hottest, stickiest month, while Japan Meteorological Agency daily data already show Haneda at **35.6°C** on 1 August and **33.0°C** on 2 August, confirming that late-summer spikes are routine rather than exceptional.[11][13][1] By contrast, analyst-style forecast pages and hourly outlooks are slightly warmer than the crowd’s modal picks, with one August forecast showing Tokyo highs in the **82°F to 90°F** range and an hourly trace reaching the high 80s Fahrenheit by midday, which maps to roughly **31°C to 32°C**.[2][10]

For traders comparing venues, the main divergence is that sportsbook-style weather forecasts and weather-market consensus tend to cluster around a **31°C** day, whereas the prediction market is still more fragmented across **29°C-31°C** and offers very little weight to the upper tail above **34°C**.[2][5][13] The key catalysts are the morning-to-midday heat build, cloud cover and sea-breeze timing around Haneda, and whether any late-day convective cooling arrives before the settlement window closes; the contract resolves from Wunderground’s Haneda station history, so even a small intraday shift in the airport reading matters more than broader Tokyo forecasts.[5][10]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.