Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo Haneda Airport’s highest temperature on 2 August will be set by the day’s peak reading before the settlement cut-off, and the market is effectively trading the afternoon maximum rather than the morning start. The current crowd-implied probability of **0% for YES** is far below the broader third-party market view, which has the leading outcome around **34°C at 40%** and still gives meaningful weight to **33°C** and **35°C**; that leaves this contract priced as if an exact match to the relevant range is very unlikely even though the wider temperature distribution is clustered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius[3].

Historical and seasonal context does not support an extremely cold outcome. August in Tokyo is typically the hottest month, with average highs around **31°C to 31°C** on several travel and forecast references, while monthly outlooks for Tokyo show daily highs running roughly **82°F to 90°F**; nearby summer guidance also describes frequent daytime highs above **30°C** and humidity that keeps heat elevated through the afternoon[1][8][9][15]. Japan’s summer 2026 has also been framed by forecasters as hotter than normal, and July heat already produced a central Tokyo reading of **36.4°C**, showing that temperatures in the mid-30s remain plausible when skies clear and winds are weak[11][12].

For traders, the main catalysts are the realised sky cover and any rain or thunderstorm timing over Haneda, because even a modest shower or sea-breeze shift can trim the day’s peak by a degree or two. The key dependency is the live hourly evolution through late morning into early afternoon, when Tokyo is forecast to climb from the mid-20s °C equivalent overnight to around **31°C** and then higher, so the decisive move will come from whether cloud build-up arrives early or whether insolation runs uninterrupted[5][3]. In cross-platform terms, prediction-market prices imply a fairly tight low-30s consensus, while sportsbook-style temperature lines generally mirror that seasonal profile rather than the market’s zero-centred contract pricing, leaving the main divergence in how narrowly the exact bucket is being discounted[1][3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.