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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Five-platform snapshot of "LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season" — live Polymarket pricing, plus how Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold structure the same contract.

Match Winner 81% Game 1 Winner 72% Game 2 Winner 72% Both Teams Slay a Dragon 68% Volume: $105K Liquidity: $580K Closes: 1 Aug 2026
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LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season

Platform comparison

PlatformYES oddsNO oddsFeeKYCSettlement
Polymarket (via PolyGram) Pick
polygram.ink (preferred broker)
81% 19% 0% (USDC on-chain) No-KYC up to $1,500 USDC, auto via UMA oracle View on Polymarket →
Polymarket (direct)
polymarket.com
81% 19% 0% Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU USDC, on-chain View on Polymarket →
Kalshi
kalshi.com
Up to 7% per trade US-only, KYC required USD View on Polymarket →
Betfair Exchange
betfair.com
2-5% commission Full KYC from first trade GBP / EUR View on Polymarket →
Manifold Markets
manifold.markets
Play-money (mana) None — play-money Mana (no cash-out) View on Polymarket →

Outcome probabilities

Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.

OutcomeProbability
Match Winner81%
Game 1 Winner72%
Game 2 Winner72%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon68%
Both Teams Slay a Dragon66%
First Blood in Game 2?55%
First Blood in Game 1?55%
Game Handicap: KC (-1.5) vs Natus Vincere (+1.5)54%
Any Player Quadra Kill52%
Any Player Penta Kill52%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor51%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors50%
Odd/Even Total Kills50%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 2?49%
Total Kills Over/Under 30.5 in Game 1?45%
O/U 2.5 Games39%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Quadra Kill28%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Any Player Penta Kill26%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor18%
Both Teams Slay Baron Nashor18%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors16%
Both Teams Destroy Inhibitors16%

Market context

Based on real-money crowd forecasting, lol: karmine corp vs natus vincere (bo3) - lec regular season stands at 81% likelihood according to current market consensus. This market refers to the LoL match between Karmine Corp and Natus Vincere in the LEC Regular Season, initially scheduled for August 1 at 1:15PM ET. This market will resolve to "K…

Methodology

This page reviews LoL: Karmine Corp vs Natus Vincere (BO3) - LEC Regular Season across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?
Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
How does resolution work?
Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.
What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
Do I need to KYC for this market?
On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.
How reliable are the quoted odds?
The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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