Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Tokyo's peak temperature on 12 August 2026 will be recorded at Haneda Airport Station and measured against historical August benchmarks for the region. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across the crowd, suggesting either extreme confidence in a specific temperature band or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces discrepancies worth monitoring.

August temperatures at Tokyo Haneda typically range between 28–35°C, with extreme heat events pushing above 37°C roughly once per decade. The 2010 heatwave saw Tokyo reach 39.9°C; more recently, August 2023 recorded several days above 37°C. Current market pricing at zero probability indicates traders are either heavily concentrated in a single temperature band or the market lacks sufficient participation to distribute odds across the full range. Comparable weather prediction markets on Kalshi and Polymarket show similar clustering patterns when historical precedent strongly favours particular outcomes.

Traders should monitor Japan Meteorological Agency forecasts released in late July 2026, which typically provide reliable 10–14 day outlooks for August conditions. Pacific typhoon activity and upper-atmosphere pressure systems in early August will be critical catalysts; the presence of a high-pressure system over central Japan typically correlates with temperatures exceeding 35°C. Any significant divergence between JMA guidance and current market pricing would suggest arbitrage opportunity, particularly if sportsbooks or alternative prediction platforms price the same event differently.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Tokyo on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.