Highest temperature in Taipei on August 8?

Platform comparison

Market context

Taipei’s highest temperature on this contract is being judged against Weather Underground’s daily observations for Taipei Songshan Airport, so the key question is whether the station gets a brief afternoon spike above the low-30s Celsius rather than what the headline forecast card shows. Public forecast services are already clustered around a hot, wet day: AccuWeather has Taipei at about 32°C to 34°C for the period, while Timeanddate and other forecast pages sit nearer 31°C to 32°C, with rain and thunderstorms expected through the day.[1][6][9][17] That puts the contract’s 0% YES price well below the broad weather consensus, which already implies a meaningful tail risk of a higher reading.

The historical frame argues against treating 0% as a true zero. Taipei’s August climatology is typically around 30°C to 31°C for daily highs, but extreme late-summer heat has pushed the city far beyond that, including 38.5°C in August 2017 and 39.3°C on 8 August 2013.[4][12][13] Analysts and travel weather references also describe August as hot, humid, and typhoon-prone, with common highs around 33°C to 36°C in the region.[2][10][16] By comparison, the prediction-market price suggests traders are assigning almost no weight to a very ordinary Taipei outcome, let alone an outlier heat spike.

The main catalysts are the local afternoon temperature path and whether rainfall, cloud cover, or thunderstorm outflows cap the maximum before the settlement window closes at midday UTC. Because the market resolves on the station’s daily observations rather than a summary high/low display, the final print can differ from the forecast headline if the station logs a short-lived surge or a rain-cooled plateau.[3] In cross-platform terms, sportsbook-style weather lines and public forecast products are already materially higher than the market’s implied 0%, so the widest divergence is between the contract and the weather consensus rather than between professional forecasters themselves.[1][6][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Taipei on August 8? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.