Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is the peak temperature recorded on 30 June 2026 at Shanghai Pudong International Airport, a metric that determines the settlement of a weather prediction contract. Historical data for this location in late June shows daily highs typically climbing from 77°F to 83°F, rarely dipping below 69°F or exceeding 92°F [1]. The hot season officially begins around 17 June, with average highs consistently surpassing 80°F through mid-September, suggesting that temperatures in the 30°C to 35°C range are climatologically normal for this period [5][6]. Given that the current crowd-implied probability for the specific outcome is only 22%, there is a notable divergence between the low market odds and the strong historical likelihood of high temperatures, a gap that sportsbook lines on similar weather contracts often fail to replicate with such conservatism.

Traders should monitor real-time atmospheric conditions, particularly the accumulation of shortwave solar energy, which is gradually decreasing in June but remains significant at 5.1 to 6.0 kWh daily [1]. While wind speeds remain constant at roughly 11.3 mph, the rapid increase in growing degree days—rising by 695°F over the month—indicates intense thermal pressure building in the region [1]. The immediate forecast for Tuesday 30 June at the nearby Hongqiao station predicts a high of 27°C (80°F), offering a comparable baseline for the Pudong station [2]. Analysts tracking the Wunderground settlement source should watch for any sudden shifts in humidity or pressure, as the current 84% humidity at Hongqiao could influence the final temperature reading at Pudong [2]. The convergence of these factors suggests the market may be underpricing the likelihood of the temperature exceeding the threshold, creating a potential mispricing relative to analyst consensus.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.