Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s hottest reading on 5 August will come from Pudong airport, and the market is effectively asking how high the station’s daily maximum gets before the 12:00 UTC settlement cut-off. Current crowd pricing on Polymarket is heavily clustered in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius, with 34°C the front-runner at about 40% and 33°C next at roughly 36%, while 32°C still carries a meaningful share at around 14%; a 0% YES quote is therefore far below the broader crowd view and implies either a stale line or a sharply different venue-specific price. [9]

Historical and comparable August guidance does not point to an outlier day so much as a classic Shanghai summer outcome: long-run August averages sit around 31°C to 32°C, while daily highs commonly range from the high 20s into the low 30s, with heat and humidity often pushing readings into the 33°C to 35°C band. Forecast providers for 5 August 2026 are broadly in that zone, with AccuWeather showing roughly 32°C to 34°C and other services around 34°C to 35°C, which leaves little support for a sub-zero implied probability and suggests the key debate is whether clouds or showers shave the peak by one degree rather than whether it breaks dramatically higher. [1][3][4][10][13]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day’s mesoscale weather details: timing of showers or thunderstorms, cloud cover during the early afternoon warming window, and whether sea-breeze or easterly flow limits inland heating before the airport station records its maximum. The practical dependency is the live sequence of observations that Wunderground will publish for Shanghai Pudong International Airport, because settlement hinges on the highest observed temperature for the day rather than a forecast or citywide average; once the first datapoint for the following date appears, late revisions stop counting under the market rules. [9][15]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.