Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 12 August 2026 will determine the settlement of this temperature-range contract, with resolution anchored to the highest reading recorded in Weather Underground's Daily Observations table at Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station. The 0% crowd-implied probability suggests traders are not currently pricing meaningful conviction into any specific temperature band, despite August being Shanghai's hottest month climatologically.

Historical August temperatures in Shanghai cluster between 32–35°C as daily highs, with extremes occasionally reaching 37–38°C during heat waves. The 2013 heat wave pushed readings to 40.6°C, whilst more recent Augusts (2020–2023) have typically peaked in the 34–36°C range. Current market pricing at zero probability across all ranges indicates either insufficient liquidity, late-stage contract dynamics as the settlement window approaches, or genuine uncertainty about which temperature band will resolve. Cross-platform comparison shows Kalshi's weather contracts generally attract tighter spreads on established seasonal patterns, whereas Polymarket's longer-dated weather markets often reflect wider probability distributions until within 72 hours of settlement.

Traders should monitor China Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August 2026, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for maximum temperatures. Typhoon activity in the Western Pacific during late July or early August could materially suppress Shanghai's peak temperatures, whilst sustained high-pressure systems would push readings toward historical extremes. The distinction between Weather Underground's Daily Observations table and its Day High & Low summary section has occasionally produced discrepancies of 0.5–1°C in historical Shanghai data, making source verification critical at settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 12? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.