Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 11?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai's weather on 11 August 2026 will determine the settlement of this temperature-range contract, with resolution tied to the highest reading recorded at Pudong International Airport Station and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders are pricing in either extreme confidence in a particular outcome or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across all temperature brackets.

August represents Shanghai's peak summer season, with historical data from the past two decades showing daily highs consistently between 32–35°C during this period. The city's subtropical climate and urban heat island effect mean temperatures below 30°C or above 37°C would constitute statistical outliers. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal divergence between prediction-market pricing and consensus weather forecasting; major sportsbooks do not typically offer temperature-range contracts for this market type, leaving prediction markets as the primary venue for such granular weather bets. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 11 August 2026, allowing only morning observations to influence final resolution.

Traders should monitor seasonal weather patterns and any anomalous atmospheric conditions emerging in late July and early August 2026. The China Meteorological Administration publishes monthly forecasts that may signal deviation from historical norms, though such predictions remain inherently uncertain at the two-year horizon. The specific reliance on Pudong station data—rather than alternative Shanghai weather stations—creates a dependency on that facility's operational continuity and measurement accuracy on the settlement date.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.