Highest temperature in Shanghai on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Shanghai’s highest temperature on 10 August will be set by the Shanghai Pudong International Airport Station reading in Weather Underground’s daily observations, so the relevant question is the day’s *actual* top Celsius print rather than a headline forecast high. That matters because the contract is tied to a single station and a single table, while public weather pages for Shanghai can show different neighbourhoods, airport data, or rounded summary highs; in other words, there is scope for small but material divergence between what traders see on forecast sites and what ultimately settles. [6][11][13]

The crowd’s 0% YES price is notably conservative for a mid-August Shanghai heat event. August climatology at Shanghai Pudong typically sits around the low 30s Celsius, and historical August pages show frequent highs in the 30s, with recent examples around 33°C to 38°C on comparable dates; one Weather Underground Shanghai history page also shows a recorded high of 103°F, or about 39°C, as the relevant historical record. That makes a sub-30°C outcome possible but not the statistical default, especially if the airport experiences a normal summer heat build-up before convection or rain arrives. [5][7][8][6]

For traders, the main catalysts are the day-of evolution of cloud cover, rainfall, and wind at Pudong rather than any formal announcement, because this contract is weather-driven and settles on the station observation rather than a forecast issuer’s view. Early-morning airport reporting already showed warm, very humid conditions with strong winds and mostly cloudy skies, while extended-forecast pages for Shanghai point to high rain chances and a low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit range, which can cap the afternoon maximum if showers arrive early. The practical watchlist is the successive Pudong observations, not the citywide forecast headline. [11][14][10][1]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.