Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The practical question is whether Incheon Airport’s top reading on 2 August lands in the low-30s or pushes higher during South Korea’s continuing heatwave. The market’s crowd price is currently centred on **32°C** and **33°C**, with 32°C the leading outcome at 42% and 33°C at 30%, which is broadly in line with published market commentary that the daytime peak should be around 32–33°C in the Incheon/Seoul area.[2]

That implied range sits below the stronger public-weather headlines, which are more focused on the wider national heat and the possibility of much hotter readings inland or in the south. Yonhap reported the state weather agency’s Sunday forecast at **33–39°C** nationwide, with Seoul-area heat intensified by humidity,[3] while Asiae said Incheon was expected near **33°C** and Seoul near **35°C**.[5] For comparison, a separate market summary on the same contract shows no alternative exchange line or analyst consensus pointing to a materially different band, so the main cross-platform read remains the Polymarket curve versus forecast desks rather than a clear sportsbook consensus.

For traders, the key catalysts are the Korea Meteorological Administration’s short-range updates, any late-shift in cloud cover or rainfall, and the airport’s own observation sequence, because the contract resolves to the **highest recorded temperature** at Incheon Intl Airport Station on the day.[4] Reuters noted that South Korea has just come through an intense, record-setting heat spell, underscoring that small forecast revisions matter when the market is clustered around a narrow band.[12] With the settlement window ending at 12:00 UTC, the final print will depend on whether the day’s warmest hour arrives before a weather change or after any early cooling from sea breeze, showers, or thicker cloud.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 2? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.