Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station will fall within one of several defined ranges, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. Seoul's August climate typically produces daily highs between 28–32°C, though heat waves can push readings several degrees higher. The settlement mechanism explicitly prioritises the granular Daily Observations dataset over summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday temperature spikes occur outside peak reporting hours.

Historical August temperatures at Incheon show considerable year-to-year variance. The station recorded 33.4°C on 17 August 2023 and 31.2°C on the same date in 2022, with 2018 reaching 34.1°C. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally cool August or systematic underestimation of typical late-summer heat. This divergence warrants scrutiny: if comparable sportsbooks or analyst consensus models assign material probability to ranges above 30°C, the prediction-market odds may reflect illiquidity rather than genuine conviction about cooler conditions.

Traders should monitor mid-August weather pattern forecasts from the Korea Meteorological Administration, typically released 10–14 days prior to settlement. Typhoon activity, which occasionally deflates late-summer temperatures across the Korean peninsula, remains a key variable. Recent years have seen increased volatility in August heat patterns; the divergence between prediction-market pricing and historical frequency distributions suggests asymmetric opportunity for those tracking atmospheric pressure systems and upper-air dynamics in the weeks preceding the settlement window.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.