Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul's weather on 15 August 2026 will determine the highest temperature recorded at Incheon International Airport Station that day, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The market currently shows zero probability across all temperature bands, suggesting either incomplete pricing or extreme uncertainty about which range will ultimately contain the day's peak reading.

August temperatures at Incheon historically cluster between 26–32°C, with occasional peaks above 33°C during heat waves. The past decade shows roughly 40% of mid-August days exceed 30°C, whilst readings above 35°C occur in approximately one year per three. The 0% crowd probability across all ranges indicates either technical settlement concerns or traders awaiting clearer atmospheric patterns before committing capital. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket typically see meaningful probability distribution only within 10–14 days of settlement, suggesting this market may experience significant repricing as August 2026 approaches.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Korean Meteorological Administration forecasts released in early August, which provide the most reliable 10-day outlooks for the region. Sea surface temperatures in the Yellow Sea and any tropical cyclone activity affecting Northeast Asia in mid-August will materially influence whether conditions favour above-average or below-average temperatures. Historical precedent suggests that once deterministic forecasts emerge, probability will concentrate heavily into one or two adjacent temperature bands rather than remaining dispersed.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 15? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.