Highest temperature in Seoul (Incheon) on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Seoul’s August heat profile supports a high-temperature market that usually resolves in the **upper 20s to low 30s Celsius**, with climatology pointing to an average August high around 30°C and typical rain/humidity that can cap or delay the day’s peak. WMO’s Seoul norms show an August average high of 30.0°C, while weather-history sources for the city cluster around 30.5°C, and recent August readings have included highs in the low-to-mid 30s Celsius rather than only the high 20s.[10][8][2]

That makes the current **0% YES** crowd price look far below the broad historical expectation for a Seoul airport-side summer afternoon, even allowing for the market’s narrower resolution rule at Incheon Intl Airport Station and the possibility that cloud cover or showers hold the reading down. Comparable recent forecasts for Seoul have still shown daytime highs around 34–35°C, and one historical weather source records a late-summer Seoul extreme above 37°C in a heatwave period, underscoring that mid-30s outcomes are not rare in severe warm spells.[10][9][17]

For traders, the key catalysts are the airport station’s actual observed maximum by the settlement cut-off, plus any late-morning changes in cloud, rainfall, or sea-breeze influence that could flatten the daily high. The market resolves from Weather Underground’s **Daily Observations** table rather than the summary high/low panel, so the actionable comparison is the recorded table maximum at Incheon, not the headline “day high”. That resolution detail matters when cross-checking against sportsbook-style weather lines or broad city forecasts, because a small discrepancy in station-specific observations can decide the contract.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.