Highest temperature in Seattle on August 16?

Platform comparison

Market context

The National Weather Service will record the highest temperature at Seattle-Tacoma International Airport on 16 August 2026, with settlement determined by the Daily Observations table on Weather Underground rather than summary high-low figures. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any temperature outcome, suggesting either incomplete market formation or a data-feed issue requiring clarification before meaningful trading emerges.

August temperatures in Seattle historically peak in the low-to-mid 80s Fahrenheit, with the airport's all-time August high standing at 96°F (set in 1981). The 30-year average high for mid-August sits around 79°F, and readings above 85°F occur roughly once every three to four years during this period. The 0% crowd probability reflects either technical settlement ambiguity or genuine uncertainty about which temperature bracket will resolve as the highest, rather than confidence that no temperature will be recorded.

Traders should monitor the National Weather Service Pacific Northwest forecast office releases in early August 2026, particularly any heat advisories or excessive heat warnings issued for the Puget Sound region. Upper-level ridge positioning and marine layer strength—both typically documented in NWS discussions—will determine whether August 16 experiences typical seasonal conditions or anomalous warmth. The specific resolution dependency on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table (not the Day High & Low summary) means traders must verify the exact data source and timing before committing capital, as discrepancies between observation methods could affect settlement interpretation.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.