Highest temperature in San Francisco on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

San Francisco International Airport’s highest temperature on 5 August 2026 is the settlement event, and the contract ultimately pays on the airport station’s observed daily maximum in Fahrenheit rather than any citywide reading. The current crowd price is badly fragmented across outcomes, with the two leading bands at 70–71°F and 72–73°F both near 49%, while 66–67°F is shown at 94% on Polymarket’s interface, indicating a clear cross-platform mismatch in how traders are positioning the day.[2][13]

Historically, August in San Francisco is usually mild by US standards, with monthly weather pages clustering highs around the upper 60s to low 70s Fahrenheit and relatively little rainfall.[1][12][16] That seasonal baseline makes the market read like a narrow-distribution temperature call rather than a broad heat-wave bet: the crowded outcome bands sit close to climatology, but the presence of non-trivial pricing in the mid-to-high 70s and even 80s suggests traders are allowing for an episodic warm-up rather than assuming a locked-in marine layer.[2][1]

For traders, the main catalysts are the airport’s day-of weather pattern, especially cloud cover, sea-breeze strength and any inland heat spillover, because those factors determine whether KSFO tops out in the low 70s or pushes higher. National Weather Service climate products for SFO and local forecast updates are the most relevant inputs for resolving late shifts in expectation, while recent Bay Area coverage has pointed to a possible warming trend inland but continued moderation near the coast, which would normally cap San Francisco below the hotter bins.[15][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.