Highest temperature in Paris on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris’s highest temperature on 5 August will be set by the Paris-Le Bourget Airport station, and the market settles on the day’s peak reading there rather than a citywide average. The crowd is assigning **0% YES**, which is effectively a claim that the station will not reach the contract’s referenced range; that stands out against ordinary August Paris climatology, where published monthly guides point to daytime highs around the mid-20s Celsius, with some forecasts closer to 29°C for this week. [5][11]

The historical frame suggests that a low-implied-probability outcome is only sensible if traders believe the day will stay well below the upper contract bands. Paris has already seen extreme summer heat in recent years, including a reported 42.6°C at Paris-Montsouris in July 2019 and a broader French record of 44.3°C in June 2026, so the tail risk is real even if the base rate is modest. That makes the current 0% print look more like a statement about today’s specific weather set-up than about Paris’ long-run summer extremes. [15][13][10]

For catalysts, traders should watch the latest short-range forecast, cloud cover, wind, and any heat advisories affecting northern France, because these are the variables that most directly move the station maximum before the settlement window closes at 12:00 UTC. Recent coverage from French and international weather reporting has already flagged very hot conditions in Paris this summer, while a local forecast for 5 August called for dry, sunny weather and around 29°C, which is consistent with a middling daytime cap rather than a breakout spike. [2][11][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.