Highest temperature in Paris on August 3?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris-Le Bourget Airport’s hottest reading on 3 August 2026 will be set by the day’s peak at the official station, with settlement using Wunderground’s daily history page for that site. The current 1% YES price is far below what the late-summer climatology suggests, because Paris in August still typically sees daytime highs in the low-to-mid 20s Celsius, even if short-lived spikes can push higher.[1][13][17]

That low market price also looks conservative against the recent French heat backdrop. Reuters-style coverage of the 2026 European heat season described France reaching a new national thermal indicator record in June, while Le Monde reported a fourth heatwave of the year beginning in late July, and the broader press noted Paris seeing 40°C-plus conditions during the summer surge.[3][19][11] Comparable Paris August extremes exist, but they are uncommon: long-run August records cited by weather-history services are around 40°C, which makes a much higher settlement band unlikely unless a fresh heat plume arrives.[17][5]

For traders, the key catalyst is the short-range forecast into the settlement day, especially any run of clear skies, light winds and southerly flow that can lift inland temperatures before the airport’s afternoon maximum is logged. AccuWeather’s August outlook still shows Paris daily highs roughly between 71°F and 81°F, which translates to about 22°C to 27°C, implying that the market’s 1% YES remains well below a benign-weather baseline unless a late heatwave develops.[1] No sportsbook-style pricing appears to be publicly standardised for this exact weather contract, so the useful comparison is between the market’s very low probability and the forecast range rather than a direct fixed odds line.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 3? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.