Highest temperature in Paris on August 1?

Platform comparison

Market context

Paris on 1 August is usually a warm late-summer setup rather than an outright heat spike, with climatology putting the average daily high around 26–27°C and August 1 averages near 27.3°C in one Paris record set, while broader August normals sit close to 25–26°C.[4][13] That makes the contract’s current **0% YES** crowd view look far from the long-run centre of gravity if the market is asking whether the day’s high lands in a higher bracket than the usual mid-to-high 20s, although the exact payout depends on the temperature range chosen by the resolution rules rather than the headline daily mean.[3][4]

Recent market pricing on Polymarket has clustered heavily around **28°C**, with 28°C quoted at 70%, then 29°C at 19% and 27°C at 9%, which implies traders expect a fairly ordinary summer high rather than a cool washout or a major heatwave.[3] That sits broadly in line with forecast services showing Paris August highs around 23–29°C on average, but still leaves room for meaningful dispersion if a hotter continental air mass builds over northern France or if cloud cover and onshore flow cap the afternoon maximum.[2][14][15] Compared with that crowd pricing, a 0% YES line would look like a very sharp disagreement if the contract resolves into a band that includes 28°C or 29°C, though the exact comparison depends on the sportsbook’s contract framing.

For traders, the main catalysts are the forecast updates closest to the settlement window, especially changes in the high temperature outlook for Paris on 1 August and any shift in the upper-end range from the low 20s into the high 20s or low 30s.[2][14] The key dependency is the official Paris-Le Bourget Airport reading used by Wunderground, so late afternoon cloud, rainfall, or a stronger-than-expected warm sector will matter more than the city-centre forecast alone.[3] With no strong event-specific calendar driver, this contract is likely to move mainly on model runs and short-range weather revisions rather than on news flow.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Paris on August 1? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.