Highest temperature in NYC on July 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

A dangerous heatwave is currently intensifying across New York City and the East Coast, with meteorologists forecasting highs to soar to 98 degrees Fahrenheit on 5 July 2026, a figure well above the long-term average of 84 degrees for this month[1][2]. This extreme event, driven by high humidity that could make temperatures feel like 105 degrees or hotter during peak afternoon hours, poses significant risks of heat exhaustion and stroke for residents[1]. The settlement window for this contract ends at 12:00 UTC on the same day, meaning the market will resolve based on the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport before that specific cutoff, a critical dependency given that overnight lows are expected to remain stubbornly high at 80 degrees[1][3].

Historically, LaGuardia has demonstrated a capacity for record-breaking heat, having recently set the hottest midnight temperature at 94 degrees in July 2013 and reaching 102 degrees in a prior event, suggesting that a 98-degree forecast is plausible rather than anomalous[3]. While the current crowd-implied probability of a "YES" outcome sits at 0%, this divergence from the physical reality of the active heatwave mirrors discrepancies often seen when sportsbook lines lag behind rapid weather updates, whereas analyst consensus on similar contracts typically aligns with immediate meteorological data[1]. Traders should monitor the National Weather Service updates for Central Park, which recently hit 100 degrees, as a proxy for the broader urban heat dome affecting LaGuardia, and watch for any sudden shifts in wind patterns that might introduce seabreezes to cool the airport before the 12:00 UTC settlement[6]. The lack of coastal breezes in inland areas is expected to let the heat linger well into the evening, reinforcing the likelihood that the daily maximum will be captured before the market closes[1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in NYC on July 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.