Highest temperature in NYC on August 2?

Platform comparison

Market context

The relevant event is the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 2 August 2026, and the market is pricing that as an outcome that should be decided by a routine late-summer heat profile rather than an extreme-heat setup. The prediction market shows a thinly traded shape around the low-to-mid 80s, with the platform’s live ladder putting most weight on 82–85°F rather than a spike well above that band, while the crowd-implied probability for a YES on the contract is currently 0%.[6] By comparison, the available sportsbook-style pricing from Robinhood also clusters around an 82°F-plus outcome, with 82°F listed at 69¢ and higher thresholds progressively cheaper, which is broadly consistent with a market expecting warmth but not a major overshoot.[3]

Historically, early August in New York usually sits near the upper 70s to upper 80s for daily highs, and third-party month-ahead forecasts for August point to daily highs between 77°F and 88°F.[1] That context makes the market’s centre of gravity around the low 80s look broadly orthodox, especially after July’s severe heat episode in the city, which can anchor trader attention but does not by itself determine the LaGuardia reading on this specific date.[4][8] In other words, analyst and forecast consensus is warmer-than-average, but not a one-way bet on a 90°F-plus print.[17]

Traders should watch the actual hourly progression at LaGuardia, because the resolution depends on the *highest* observed temperature at that station, not the noon reading or an unofficial citywide figure.[2] The main catalysts are therefore daytime cloud cover, storm timing, and sea-breeze effects that can cap the peak by a few degrees; current forecast products for New York on 2 August lean around the upper 20s Celsius to low 30s Celsius, which translates to roughly the upper 70s to high 80s Fahrenheit.[5][10][12] If showers or thunderstorms arrive earlier than expected, the ceiling on the final print can fall quickly, whereas delayed convection would leave the market exposed to a higher late-afternoon maximum.[5][13]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on August 2? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.