Highest temperature in NYC on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will determine which range this market settles into. The resolution mechanism relies specifically on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that matters when intraday peaks diverge from reported highs. Current crowd pricing reflects 0% probability, suggesting traders view the specified range as unlikely given historical patterns for mid-August in New York City.

August temperatures at LaGuardia typically peak between 82–88°F, with extreme heat above 90°F occurring roughly once per decade during this month. The 1936 heat wave produced readings near 100°F, but such outliers remain statistical rarities. Recent summers show 2022 and 2023 both exceeded 90°F in mid-August, whilst 2024 remained closer to seasonal norms. The absence of any meaningful probability allocation suggests the market's range sits well outside the historical distribution for this date, making comparison across platforms instructive—sportsbooks and other prediction venues typically don't price single-day weather outcomes, leaving this contract largely isolated from cross-venue arbitrage signals.

Traders monitoring this contract should track the National Weather Service's extended forecast as mid-August 2026 approaches, particularly any heat dome development or tropical system activity that could elevate temperatures above seasonal expectations. The Atlantic hurricane season peaks in September, but late-summer tropical moisture occasionally influences Northeast weather patterns. Real-time data from Weather Underground's station network will become the operative reference point only after the settlement date, making forecast accuracy in the weeks preceding 17 August the primary driver of position adjustments.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.