Highest temperature in NYC on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport on 14 August 2026 will determine this market's outcome, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures. The current crowd-implied probability of 0% reflects the market's nascent stage, as this contract settles in August 2026—roughly 20 months forward—making real-time weather forecasting impossible at present. Cross-platform comparison reveals minimal liquidity across prediction markets and sportsbooks for this specific date, with most weather derivatives focusing on seasonal or monthly aggregates rather than single-day highs.

Historical August temperatures at LaGuardia show a median daily high near 82°F, with extremes ranging from 96°F (2019) to 71°F (1992). The 0% probability likely reflects traders' reluctance to commit capital to an event too distant for meaningful meteorological input, rather than confidence in any particular temperature range. Seasonal patterns suggest mid-August typically falls within the summer heat plateau, though tropical systems can elevate readings substantially.

Traders monitoring this contract should track Atlantic hurricane season activity (peak August–October) and broader climate oscillations as the settlement date approaches. The National Weather Service's seasonal outlooks, updated quarterly, will provide the first substantive signals for August 2026 conditions. Meaningful probability shifts should emerge only within 30–60 days of settlement, when deterministic forecasting becomes feasible. Until then, this market functions primarily as a placeholder for eventual seasonal positioning.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.