Highest temperature in Munich on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily high temperature, and this market settles on which Celsius range contains that figure. The crowd currently assigns zero probability to any outcome, a signal of either extreme uncertainty or insufficient liquidity rather than genuine consensus that no temperature will be recorded. Weather Underground's Daily Observations table—not its summary display—serves as the authoritative source, a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between real-time station data and processed forecasts.

Munich's August climate provides a baseline for interpreting current odds. Historical data from the past two decades shows August highs in Munich typically range between 24–28°C, with extremes occasionally reaching 30°C or above during heat waves. The 0% crowd probability likely reflects sparse trading activity rather than informed bearishness; comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket typically show distributed probabilities across multiple temperature bands rather than complete consensus on any single outcome. Sportsbook-style weather derivatives, where available, price August Munich temperatures with modest volatility, suggesting modest disagreement on likely ranges.

Traders should monitor European weather forecasts from mid-August 2026 onwards, particularly outputs from the German Meteorological Service (Deutscher Wetterdienst) and ECMWF models. Heat wave alerts or unusual pressure systems over Central Europe in the preceding weeks would shift expectations materially. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on 17 August, meaning morning forecasts become critical for late trading. Any divergence between Wunderground's Daily Observations and other weather databases could create resolution disputes, though the market's explicit reliance on the observations table provides clarity.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.