Highest temperature in Munich on August 15?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 15 August 2026, Munich Airport Station will record a daily maximum temperature in Celsius. The market currently shows 0% implied probability across all temperature ranges, suggesting either extreme uncertainty amongst traders or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds. Resolution hinges on the Daily Observations table from Weather Underground rather than the summary Day High & Low section—a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between automated station readings and post-processed forecasts.

Munich's August climate presents a narrow historical band. Over the past two decades, mid-August highs have typically ranged between 24–28°C, with extremes rarely exceeding 32°C or falling below 20°C. The 2003 European heat wave saw Munich reach 37.5°C in early August, but such anomalies remain statistical outliers. The current crowd probability of zero across all ranges suggests traders may be waiting for seasonal forecasts or treating the market as illiquid rather than genuinely expecting an implausible outcome. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi show similar patterns for August European temperatures—initial flatness followed by tightening as the settlement date approaches.

Traders should monitor the European summer forecast cycle, particularly updates from Deutscher Wetterdienst (DWD) and ECMWF models in late July and early August 2026. High-pressure systems moving northward from the Mediterranean can shift Munich's expected range significantly. Any sustained heatwave warnings issued by German meteorological authorities in the fortnight before settlement would likely trigger repricing across all temperature brackets, potentially breaking the current zero-probability deadlock.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 15? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.