Highest temperature in Munich on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Munich Airport’s hottest reading on 10 August will depend on the day’s convective setup more than the month’s average climate, because late-summer maxima in the city typically sit in the mid-20s Celsius but can spike much higher in heat episodes. Munich’s August average high is about 24°C, while historic records for the month run to 37°C at one end and 2°C at the other, showing that the distribution is wide enough for a hot day to clear many of the common temperature bands used in prediction markets.[1][18] The current 0% YES implied probability therefore reads as an extreme “cold” position against a climatology that still leaves room for a warm or very warm outcome, especially if the synoptic pattern favours southerly flow and clear skies.[1][18]

The main comparators here are not sportsbook lines, which are rarely quoted on granular weather-certificate contracts, but the market’s own implied price and the historical analogue set. On the evidence available, there is no broadly disseminated external consensus price to anchor against, so the 0% figure is best treated as a thin-liquidity signal rather than a robust forecast. Daily Observations on Weather Underground are the binding source, which matters because intraday spikes can differ from the simpler day-high summary; traders should watch the station’s recorded maximum closely through the settlement window, not the headline forecast panel.[3]

The key catalysts are the local forecast evolution, any shift in cloud cover or thunderstorm risk, and whether Munich Airport sees an early-afternoon peak before a sea-breeze or storm outflow cap resets temperatures. AccuWeather and other forecast services currently show an August 10 profile in the low-20s Celsius range for Munich, but those monthly pages are only guides and can move quickly with model updates.[2][6] With settlement ending at 12:00 UTC, the most relevant period is the late-morning build-up into the early local afternoon, when the day’s maximum is most likely to be set at the airport station.[3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Munich on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.