Highest temperature in Miami on August 5?

Platform comparison

Market context

Miami’s **highest temperature on 5 August** will be judged against the Miami International Airport station, and the market is already pricing a very low chance of an extreme outcome, with the crowd-implied probability at **0% YES**. That sits uneasily against live-weather pricing elsewhere: Bitget’s contract ladder is concentrated in the **86-89°F** bands, with **88-89°F** showing the most volume and **90-91°F** close behind, while Robinhood is also listing a Miami daily high contract for the same date. AccuWeather’s August forecast for Miami shows daily highs mostly in the **87-89°F** range, which is broadly consistent with a sub-90 result, but not with a zero-probability readout for a higher band if the day runs hot. [1][6][8]

For historical context, Miami in August usually sits in the upper 80s to low 90s, so a settlement in the mid-to-high 80s would be normal rather than unusual. Recent local coverage pointed to heat building into the **around 90°F** area, with heat indices well above that because of humidity, which is the main reason traders should not treat the 0% screen as a full reflection of physical weather risk. NWS material also shows Miami can post record-high readings on individual days, underlining that airport observations can move a few degrees either way depending on cloud cover, showers and sea-breeze timing. [1][3][11][15]

The key catalysts are the daytime forecast updates, radar trends and whether storms form early enough to cap the afternoon high at the airport before the settlement cut-off. Miami weather in early August is often shaped by passing showers, and forecast services for 5 August showed a meaningful rain risk alongside temperatures centred in the low 90s or upper 80s, depending on the model. That leaves a gap between sportsbook-style temperature expectations, which appear to cluster near 90°F, and the near-zero prediction-market price, suggesting the contract may be misaligned unless the market is treating the resolution source very conservatively. [2][4][10][14]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Miami on August 5? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.