Highest temperature in Manila on June 30?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 30 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will determine the outcome of a prediction market where the crowd currently assigns zero per cent probability to any “yes” result. This implies traders believe the temperature will fall outside the defined range, likely due to expectations of unusually cool conditions or a misalignment in the range itself.

Historically, June in Manila sees daily highs between 89°F and 93°F (31.7°C to 33.9°C), with the all-time record for the area reaching 38.8°C in April 2024 at the same station[5]. A recent peak of 36.9°C was also logged in Metro Manila earlier this year[2], suggesting that temperatures in the 30–34°C range are typical. The current zero per cent implied probability appears inconsistent with these baselines, raising questions about whether the market’s temperature range is set too narrowly or if traders anticipate an anomalous cooling event.

Traders should monitor PAGASA’s daily weather bulletins and Wunderground’s real-time data for the airport station, as sudden shifts in cloud cover or monsoon activity could alter temperatures significantly[3]. The heat index has previously reached 45°C under extreme conditions[8], but such extremes are rare in June. With no major climate announcements scheduled, the primary dependency remains on local weather patterns and the accuracy of the Wunderground resolution source[1]. The divergence between historical norms and the market’s implied probability suggests either a pricing inefficiency or a misunderstood contract structure.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Manila on June 30? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.