Highest temperature in Manila on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, the highest temperature recorded at Ninoy Aquino International Airport in Manila will determine which range this market resolves to. The settlement window closes at midday UTC on that date, with resolution sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than the Day High & Low summary—a distinction that matters when discrepancies arise between the two datasets.

Manila's August climate is remarkably consistent. Historical data from the past decade shows daily highs clustering between 31–34°C during the monsoon season, with extreme readings above 35°C occurring in fewer than 5% of August days. The 0% crowd probability currently implied across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either an exceptionally cool day or uncertainty about the specific temperature bands offered. Cross-platform comparison reveals limited liquidity on this contract; sportsbooks do not typically quote weather derivatives at this granularity, leaving prediction markets as the primary pricing mechanism. Kalshi's weather contracts tend to attract more volume than Polymarket equivalents for hyper-local conditions, though neither platform shows material activity here.

Traders should monitor the Philippine Atmospheric, Geophysical and Astronomical Services Administration (PAGASA) forecasts issued in early August, which typically provide 10-day outlooks with reasonable accuracy for temperature ranges. The onset or intensity of the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) in mid-August could shift conditions cooler or warmer depending on cloud cover and wind patterns. Any tropical system approaching the region would be flagged in PAGASA advisories at least 5–7 days prior, offering a concrete catalyst for repricing.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Manila on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.