Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 17 August 2026, Madrid's highest temperature will be recorded at Adolfo Suárez Madrid-Barajas Airport and classified into a range bracket. The resolution will draw from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary figures, a distinction that occasionally produces material differences in final readings. Settlement occurs at 12:00 UTC on that date.

Madrid's August temperatures cluster reliably between 32 and 38 degrees Celsius, with extremes occasionally breaching 40°C during heat waves. Historical data from the past decade shows the city exceeded 38°C on roughly 60% of August days, whilst readings above 40°C occurred in approximately 15% of August periods. The current 0% implied probability across prediction markets suggests traders are pricing in either an unusually cool August or uncertainty about which specific temperature bracket the market offers. Comparable weather markets on Kalshi and Polymarket typically show non-zero probabilities for all temperature ranges during summer months in southern Europe, indicating potential mispricing if standard seasonal patterns hold.

European weather forecasting agencies, including AEMET (Spain's national meteorological service), will issue their August outlook in late July 2026. Any significant deviation from typical summer circulation patterns—such as Atlantic low-pressure systems or North African heat dome persistence—would shift expectations materially. Traders should monitor mid-July forecasts and any heat-wave alerts issued by Spanish authorities, as these often correlate with the upper-range temperature outcomes that currently show zero implied probability.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in Madrid on August 17? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.