Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17?

Platform comparison

Market context

The question centres on the peak temperature recorded at Chaudhary Charan Singh International Airport in Lucknow on 17 August 2026, measured in degrees Celsius and sourced from Weather Underground's Daily Observations table. Lucknow, situated in Uttar Pradesh in the Indo-Gangetic Plain, experiences extreme summer heat; August typically sees daily highs ranging from 32–36°C, though conditions vary considerably based on monsoon progression and atmospheric pressure systems active across northern India during that period.

Historical August temperature records for Lucknow show considerable year-to-year variation. The city's all-time August high exceeds 40°C, though such extremes occur infrequently. More typical August peaks fall in the 33–37°C band. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing in either high confidence in a specific temperature range or insufficient liquidity to establish meaningful odds across alternative brackets. Cross-platform comparison data remains sparse at this distance from the resolution date, and no major weather forecasting services have published August 2026 outlooks; such forecasts typically emerge 10–14 days prior to the target date.

Traders should monitor the Indian Meteorological Department's monsoon bulletins and upper-air circulation patterns as August approaches. The Southwest Monsoon's intensity and withdrawal timing materially affect late-summer temperatures across northern India. Airport station readings can diverge from city-centre observations owing to surface characteristics and measurement protocols, a distinction relevant when comparing historical benchmarks to the specific Wunderground Daily Observations source cited for settlement.

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Lucknow on August 17? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.