Highest temperature in Los Angeles on August 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

Los Angeles will experience some temperature reading on 14 August 2026, and this market captures the highest hourly observation recorded at LAX that day. The settlement mechanism relies specifically on Weather Underground's Daily Observations table rather than summary high-low figures, a distinction that occasionally produces different results when intraday spikes occur between standard reporting intervals.

August temperatures at LAX typically range between 75°F and 85°F, with historical data showing that extreme heat events above 95°F occur roughly once per decade in mid-August. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders are pricing this as an exceptionally unlikely outcome, though the specific temperature threshold triggering YES resolution remains unspecified in available market documentation. Comparable weather markets on Polymarket and Kalshi have shown divergent pricing on similar Los Angeles heat events, with prediction markets generally underweighting tail-risk scenarios relative to meteorological models when seasonal patterns appear stable.

The National Weather Service Los Angeles office publishes extended forecasts through mid-August, and any atmospheric river activity or heat dome formation in the preceding week would materially shift expectations. Current conditions favour typical summer patterns, though the 2026 Atlantic hurricane season and any resulting tropical moisture transport could introduce unexpected warming. Traders should monitor National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration advisories from early August onwards, as these typically provide 10-day outlooks that could trigger significant repricing if anomalous heat becomes forecast-relevant.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.