Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10?

Platform comparison

Market context

Kuala Lumpur’s highest temperature on 10 August is shaping up as a **low-30s Celsius** settlement, with the local forecast from Malaysia’s meteorological department calling for **no rain** and a **33°C maximum** for the district, while AccuWeather and Timeanddate both point to highs around **89–92°F** (roughly **32–33°C**).[12][18][20] That lines up with Weather Underground’s Kuala Lumpur history pages, which put the daily high near **91°F** and show a record high of **96°F**, reinforcing that the market is really about whether the day tops out in the **33°C bin** or nudges into **34°C** territory.[4][13]

The crowd has already priced that decision fairly tightly: Polymarket shows **33°C at 52%** and **34°C at 44%**, leaving little room for a very cool or very hot outcome.[13] That profile matches the seasonal backdrop, with August averages for Kuala Lumpur clustering around the high 20s Celsius and rainfall still common, though not guaranteed every day.[1][10] In comparable August weather history, the city frequently reaches the low 30s, and WorldWeatherOnline’s historical table shows recent August maxima mostly in the **30–34°C** range, so the market’s centre of gravity is consistent with the climatology rather than an extreme day.[8][11]

For traders, the key catalyst is the intraday evolution of cloud cover and shower activity around Kuala Lumpur International Airport, because the contract settles on the **highest temperature recorded in Weather Underground’s Daily Observations table**, not the summary high/low box.[4] The official district forecast already suggests a dry day, but tropical convection can still cap the peak if storms develop earlier than expected.[12][18] At 07:00 UTC, the market is still open to a late-morning or early-afternoon warm-up, and the main live check is whether observations at the airport push above **33°C** before the settlement window closes.[4][17]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Highest temperature in Kuala Lumpur on August 10? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is PolyGram. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.