Highest temperature in Hong Kong on August 4?

Platform comparison

Market context

Hong Kong’s highest temperature on 4 August 2026 will be set by the Hong Kong Observatory’s final daily extract, and the market will resolve to the Celsius range containing that recorded maximum. With the crowd currently pricing **30°C at 40%** and **29°C at 34%**, the contract is centred on a fairly tight band rather than a broad hot-day call, while the displayed 0% YES on the venue data appears inconsistent with the live order book and should be treated cautiously. [2][3]

The historical read-through is straightforward: Hong Kong in August is normally hot enough that outcomes in the high 20s or low 30s are common, and recent reporting has already shown the city reaching the mid-30s this year, including a hottest-day reading of **34.6°C** in Yuen Long Park. That makes the market’s front end look aligned with seasonal norms, but it also shows why a single sunny or stagnant afternoon can push the daily maximum one or two degrees above consensus; compared with sportsbook-style lines, the prediction market is effectively splitting the difference between a low-30s heat outcome and a slightly cooler, cloudier day. [7][9][17]

Traders should watch the Hong Kong Observatory’s daily readings and any weather warnings that affect daytime heating, especially thunderstorms or tropical weather that can cap the afternoon maximum. The key dependency is publication timing: this market cannot settle until the Observatory posts the finalized “Daily Extract” for 4 August, so any late revision or delayed release matters more here than in many other weather contracts. Broader seasonal coverage has also pointed to 2026 being unusually warm in Hong Kong, which supports a market leaning above the climatological average even if rain or cloud cover trims the top end. [6][14][17][18]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.